#8: Automation, Leisure & the Laffer Curve
Bruce Sterling, discussing artificial intelligence and automation in his closing remarks at South by Southwest last month, speculated that the social impact of that technological shift would be “the proletariat, turning into the precariat, turning into the unnecessariat.” On the brink of the transition, the specter of large-scale unemployment does loom large, as it has with so many previous labor-saving innovations, but each time around we’re less optimistic and more certain the labor “saved” will take the form of greater instability and inequality, not leisure.
Like Donald Trump’s presidency, though, our nervous anticipation of this imminent labor market “disruption” masks the fact that so much of what we’re worried about is already here: Millions of jobs have already splintered into precarious part-time gigs; jobs that remain are also as precarious as ever; countless more jobs have already been automated away; and we all spend our free time generating valuable data for large corporate internet platforms on a pro bono basis. The line between working and not working seems blurrier than ever.
The Laffer Curve, that conceptual linchpin of Reaganomics and its tax cuts, demonstrated the useful notion that a 100 percent tax rate would yield no revenue because no one would have an incentive to work. It’s an interesting model for the present condition, if we replace taxation with the variety of rapacious capitalist practices that enable a smaller group of people to capture a bigger share of societal wealth each year. Supposing that share approaches the limit of 100 percent and the difference between working and not working shrinks accordingly, it will be interesting to see whether more people switch from the former to the latter.* “Let them play videogames” is no better a response than “let them eat cake.”
*I know, I've shared that link before, but I keep thinking about it.
Reads:
It's time for some game theory: Pedestrians will be able to block self-driving cars at will, which seems like a problem.
Re: above. Bigger Corporations are Making Your Poorer by Matt Stoller.
That Bruce Sterling speech from SXSW. Every time he gives a long talk that shows up online, I listen.
Until next time,
Drew